One Up On Wall Street – Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch, during his 13 years as head at Fidelity Magellan, from 1977 till 1990, managed to realize annual returns of 29%. One up on Wall Street is an excellent composition on how can lay investors approach investing.

The Book is divided into following sections:

Part 1: Preparing to Invest

Part 2: Picking Winners

Part 3: The Long-term View

 

What is so amazing about this book is the candid way in which Lynch will explain you his methodology and no sir.!! They don’t include use of greek letters to value the firm. According to him every company is a business, if you understand how the business will play out in next few years, you are in with a chance to make money.!

Peter Lynch comes across as a person who believes in doing thorough research on his investments

Some of his Quotes in the book:

 “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it.”

 “If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”

“Everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.”

“The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game. And that’s always been my philosophy.”

“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.”

“As I look back on it now, it’s obvious that studying history and philosophy was much better preparation for the stock market than, say, studying statistics. Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who’ve been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage. If stockpicking could be quantified, you could rent time on the nearest Cray computer and make a fortune. But it doesn’t work that way. All the math you need in the stock market you get in the fourth grade.”

“Getting the story on a company is a lot easier if you understand the basic business. That’s why I’d rather invest in panty hose than in communication satellites or in motel chains than in fiber optics. The simpler it is, the better I like it. When somebody says, “any idiot could run this joint,” that’s a plus as far as I’m concerned, because sooner or later any idiot probably is going to be running it.”

“You can get tenbaggers in companies that have already proven themselves. When in doubt, tune in later.”

Peter Lynch in Part 2 of the book talks about Classifying Business into Six Categories:

1. Slow growers – Usually large and ageing companies. When an industry at large slows down, most of the companies within the industry lose momentum too.

2. Stalwarts -Stalwarts are companies like Coca Cola, Procter and Gamble, Colgate Palmolive. Depending on when you buy them and what price you can make a sizeable profit in stalwarts.

“I always keep some stalwarts in my portfolio because they offer pretty good protection during recessions and hard times.

3. Fast growers – Lynch says, These are among my favorite investments. Small, aggressive, new enterprises that grow at 20 – 25% plus a year. If you choose wisely this is the land of the 10-to-40 baggers, and even 200baggers. With a small portfolio, one or two of them can make a career.

A fast growing company does not necessarily have to belong to a fast growing industry. As a matter of fact, I would rather it didn’t, in which case it is winning over market share and capturing a bigger segment of the market.

There’s plenty of risk in fast growers, especially in younger companies that tend to be overzealous and underfinanced. Also smaller fast growers risk extinction and the larger fast growers risk a rapid devaluation when they begin to falter.

4. Cyclicals – A cyclical is a company whose sales and profits rise and fall in regular if not completely predictable fashion. In a growth industry, business just keeps expanding, but in a cyclical industry it expands and contracts, then expands and contracts again. The autos and the airlines, the tire companies and steel companies, and chemical companies are all cyclicals.

5. Turnarounds – Turnaround candidates have been battered, depressed, and others can barely drag themselves to the bankruptcy courts. These aren’t slow growers, these are no growers. These aren’t cyclicals that rebound; these are potential fatalities.

6. Asset-Plays – An asset play is any company that’s sitting on something valuable that you know about, but that the market has overlooked.

These Classifications provides investor with a framework. Must read read read!!! Absolutely Relevant even today!! Happy Learning! :)

How To Get From Where You Are To Where You Want To Be – Jack Canfield

This is a remarkable book because it changes lives, I had read this book couple of years back. Read it, loved it, did not implement anything that was in it and lot of time passed by till one of my good friend was sort of lacking motivation.!! I said here’s a book I liked, this will help you..

Boy it did work for him!!! I re read the book again and this time did not read it but rather absorbed everything in it. It is a must read for people who really want to make changes in their lives for good. There are 25 Success Principles in this book, if followed will change your life for better.

 

The 25 Success Principles

1. Take 100% Responsibility for Your Life
2. Be Clear Why You’re Here
3. Decide What You Want
4. Believe it’s Possible
5. Believe in Yourself
6. Become an Inverse Paranoid
7. Unleash the Power of Goal-Setting
8. Chunk It Down
9. Success Leaves Clues
10. Release the Brakes
11. See What You Want, Get What You See
12. Act As If
13. Take Action
14. Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway
15. Ask! Ask! Ask!
16. Reject Rejection
17. Use Feedback to your Advantage
18. Commit to Constant and Never-Ending Improvement
19. Practice Persistence
20. Practice the Rule of Five
21. Surround Yourself with Successful People
22. Clean up Your Messes and Your Incompletes
23. Develop Four New Success Habits a Year
24. Stay Focused on Your Core Genius
25. Start Now…. Just Do it!

 

Stop the blame game; take responsibility of your life. Don’t let anybody talk you out of your dreams. Decide what you want, be willing to toil hard for it, be prepared to face tough situations, failures, ridicule but after all that if you still persist you will emerge victorious.!

“You have to persevere. You have to do it. I have insecurities. But whatever I’m insecure about I don’t dissect it, but I’ll go after it and say, ”What am I afraid of?” I bet the average successful person can tell you they’ve failed so much more than they’ve had success. I’ve had far more failures than I’ve had successes. With every commercial I’ve gotten, there were 200 I didn’t get. You have to go after what you’re afraid of.” – Kevin Sorbo

It’s funny what we can achieve if we just don’t quit too often, Read this book in peace and with an open mind, trust me you will like it.!

This is something i found, while surfing the internet. Damn good!!!

God Bless.! :)

Outliers: The Story of Success by Malcom Gladwell

An Interesting read. The book provides us with a different view point to why successful people are successful? We always love it when the underdog – a nobody makes it big in life.! Poor family – hardships faced – lot of hard work – Success..!!!! We are suckers for such stories and consider these people as role models and look to be just like them.

“I want to convince you that these kinds of personal explanations of success don’t work. People don’t rise from nothing….It is only by asking where they are from that we can unravel the logic behind who succeeds and who doesn’t.”

The author believes that we pay too much attention to what successful people are like, and too little attention to where they are from: that is, their culture, their family, their generation, and the idiosyncratic experiences of their upbringing. Damn.!! Few stories down and you realize for success there are lot of other variables at work, some of them require plain Luck.! :)

What is it that is responsible for some of the people reaching to top and achieving great things? They are a combination of Opportunities. Opportunities multiply as they are seized. Yes.!! Bill Joy, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Beatles, each and every one had unique set of opportunities that helped them achieve great things, No doubt they were brilliant but then there are thousand if not millions of people just as talented, smart as they are but it was the difference in the opportunities received that did the trick for them.!

“The lesson here is very simple. But it is striking how often it is overlooked. We are so caught in the myths of the best and the brightest and the self-made that we think outliers spring naturally from the earth. We look at the young Bill Gates and marvel that our world allowed that thirteen-year-old to become a fabulously successful entrepreneur. But that’s the wrong lesson. Our world only allowed one thirteen-year-old unlimited access to a time sharing terminal in 1968. If a million teenagers had been given the same opportunity, how many more Microsofts would we have today? To build a better world we need to replace the patchwork of lucky breaks and arbitrary advantages that today determine success – the fortunate birth dates and the happy accidents of history – with a society that provides opportunities for all.”

 

So how do you really be good at something? Simple! Follow the 10000 hours rule. This is the idea that it takes approximately 10000 hours of deliberate practice to master a skill. (yeah, you heard that right)

“Practice isn’t the thing you do once you’re good. It’s the thing you do that makes you good.”

Warren Buffet started reading about investing at the age of 11, he also invested early. He learnt many techniques i.e reading Price volume charts (Technical Analysis), Fundamental Analysis. By 19 he finished reading books on investing in Omaha public library. He founded his partnership at age of 25. By that time warren had spent 15 years learning about investing. He reads 10-12 hours a day.! No doubt he has an edge.

All these insights by the author makes you think differently and not just look at successes from a narrow point of view. You realize the truth from a different Vantage Point. Overall, a good book to read.

“He’d had to make his way alone, and no one—not rock stars, not professional athletes, not software billionaires, and not even geniuses — ever makes it alone.”

Eye of the Tiger, the Edge!!

Since the past few weeks my progress for CFA Level 2 has been sort of a disaster, lack of any motivation, burn out. It is one of those times when you will get all bad, ugly, sad piece of information from left right and center, you’re in deep Sh#t. with less than 10 weeks for the Level 2 exam. I guess this is as bad as things can get.!

Watched Rocky 3, one of my favorites and I am sure there’s a rocky in every one of us, Full of dreams, aspirations, Fighter, True Lover, Hardworking…. In short a guy who believes in getting up every time after getting knocked down and keeps fighting. Rafael Nadal is one of the persons who is pretty similar (keeps the ball in play every time).

This however is my present state of mind. Dialogues from the movie Rocky 3. Adrian (Rocky’s wife talking to rocky). Damn.! Rocky was lucky to have someone like Adrian :) Okay…! I am just jealous.

Rocky: Nothing is real if you don’t believe in who you are! I don’t believe in myself no more don’t you understand? When a fighter don’t believe, that’s it! He’s finished, it’s over, that’s it.
Adrian: THAT’S NOT IT!!
Rocky: That is it!
Adrian: Why don’t you tell me the truth?!
Rocky: What are you putting me through Adrian? You wanna know the truth? The truth is I don’t want to lose what I’ve got. In the beginning I didn’t care about what happened to me. I’d go in the ring, I’d get busted up, I didn’t care! But now there’s you, there’s the kid. I don’t want to lose what I’ve got!
Adrian: What do we have that can’t be replaced? WHAT?! A house, we’ve got cars, we’ve got MONEY! We got everything but the truth. WHAT’S THE TRUTH, DAMN IT?!
Rocky: I’M AFRAID! ALL RIGHT!! YOU WANT TO HEAR ME SAY IT? You want to break me down? All right, I’m afraid. For the first time in my life, I’m afraid.
Adrian: I’m afraid too. There’s nothing wrong with being afraid.
Rocky: There is. For me, there is.
Adrian: Why? You’re human aren’t you?

Yeah.! So I am afraid of flunking CFA Level 2, It’s not the first time :P but seriously things look really uphill. Okay let’s continue the rocky story.

Rocky: Look, I don’t know what I am. All I know is I’m a liar, and because of that Mickey ain’t here no more.
Adrian: You didn’t push him into anything! He was a grown man and he did what he had to do! And you have no right to feel guilty for what happened. You don’t! You were a champion, and you did what you were expected to do, and you did what I and everybody else thought you should do. And you wanna tell me that those fights weren’t real, that you were carried? Well I don’t believe it! But it doesn’t matter what I believe because you’re the one that’s got to carry that fear around inside you, afraid that everybody’s going to take things away and afraid that you’re going to be remembered as a coward, that you’re not a man anymore. Well, none of its true! But it doesn’t matter if I tell you. It doesn’t matter, because you’re the one that’s gotta settle it. Get rid of it! Because when all the smoke has cleared and everyone’s through chanting your name, it’s just going to be us. And you can’t live like this. We can’t live like this. Cause it’s going to bother you for the rest of your life. Look what it’s doing to you now. Apollo thinks you can do it, so do I. But you gotta want to do it for the right reasons. Not for the guilt over Mickey, not for the people, not for the title, not for money or me, but for you. Just you. Just you alone.
Rocky: And if I lose?
Adrian: Then you lose. But at least you lose with no excuses, no fear. And I know you can live with that.
Rocky: How did you get so tough?
Adrian: I live with a fighter.
Rocky: I really love you.

Wow.!! Dint I tell you rocky is damn lucky to have had Adrian in his life, okay. i am really going to try and give my best this time, I’ve got to do this for myself, keep things together and keep pushing with studies.

In the movie “The Greatest Game Ever Played” Harry vardon (Golf great) whispers to young Francis Ouimet. “Even in our darkest hour, we must always remember, never despair!” That is what I intend to do. Wish me Luck.

Bharat Bijlee.!

Bharat Bijlee Limited is one of the leaders in the electrical engineering industry in India. Its main business segments are Transformers, Projects, Electric Motors, Elevator Systems and Drives.

The Financial Performance of the company over 5 years is shown below,

The Sales have grown by 8.27% while the Net Profit (PAT) by around 6%. Clearly when at first glance we see that the company is having problems with handling expenses which have outpaced Sales.! Operating Expenses grew whooping 10.68%. Raw Material costs the major culprit increasing by over 11.2%

For the 9M FY2012 the company has Sales of around 498 Crores, While PAT is about 41 Crores.

DuPont Analysis: The Return on Equity which the company earns can be broken down further to analyze from where does the company exactly get its profits from.!

The Leverage (Usage of debt in operations) has gone down over the years, this has unfortunately for us has coincided with even more decrease in asset turnover :( (Asset turnover means for every rupee of assets what revenues do we earn) The Net Profit margin is another concern, In 2011, NPM of 10.45% doesn’t tell you the real story, The company had a nonrecurring item of 37 crore in its P&L.(This is one time event.!!!) Its contributed to over 50% of reported PAT.

Operating and Cash Cycle: Let’s take a look at how the company handles its Creditors and Debtors.!

The Cash Cycle for the company (i.e the length of time, in days, that it takes for a company to convert resource inputs into cash flows) looks okay.! The working capital days have increased over the years which tells us that a lot of money of the company might be tied up with its Stakeholders which cannot be employed by the company for any other purpose.

This is what is of concern to us, the Interest Coverage ratio has shown a decline over the years. The main reason for this is the decline in Profitability of the firm. For 9M FY2012 the company has coverage of 3x. The company has minimal debt of 23 crores which is a small comfort to us that if needed the company can borrow and survive to live another day.!

These problems of profitability seems to be tied up with the increase in raw material expenses, Controlling expenses would automatically reflect in increased profits and thereby increasing coverage ratio of the company.

Valuation:

Assuming the company has a long-term growth rate (g) = 2% , Discount rate (r)=10%. Average 5 year EBIT is greater than recent year, We take the lower value = 70 Crores.

The Value of Equity should be

Ve = 70/(0.10-0.02) = 875 Crores. Value of a stock = Rs. 1535. Therefore,

Enterprise Value = Ve- Cash+Debt = 875-34+23

Enterprise Value = 864 Crores.

As Charlie Munger would always say “Invert always Invert” Let’s take a look at what Mr. Market feels Bharat Bijlee growth rate would be.

Reverse Engineering!

Current MCAP or Ve = 376 crores. Therefore EV = (376-34+23) = 365 Crores.

Plugging this in above formula where we are now trying to find “g”. We get

g = -8%. Wtf.? Our Mr. Market here thinks that Bharat Bijlee will go down the dumps and its telling us ROFL to our calculations!

But then we know Mr. Market is Manic Depressive and can sometimes be wrong.

Not getting too overconfident in our valuation capabilities we have a Margin of safety of around 58%. So agreed our valuation is not precise, to the point but even if we assume there is room for error, we have plenty of safety in buying Bharat Bijlee because of our low purchase price.

Our Analysis shows a company in trouble, Sic Yess! But certainly not worth the crap valuation it’s getting from the market.

Have the courage of your convictions once you have made a decision.!

Walter Schloss passed away on 19 February 2012. He was 95. May his soul rest in peace. From 1955 to 2002, by Schloss’s estimate, his investments returned 16 percent annually after fees, compared with 10 percent for the S&P 500.

Walter Schloss never went to college, but took a course from Ben Graham at night at the New York Institute of Finance. Having worked under Benjamin Graham for Graham Newman Corporation and then founding his own investment partnership, He has an outstanding record which he has achieved based on the principle of “Margin of Safety”  He may not be as famous as Warren Buffet, Philip Fisher. Nonetheless He drove across a simple message to us about how if you have a right framework for investing; you are bound to do well.

These are the 16 Golden Rules of Investing he suggested, named under “Factors needed to make money in the Stock Market”.

Walter Schloss – 16 Golden Rules of Investing

CFA Level 1 Cleared! Flashback!

The joy and happiness when I got my results, those words in the mail saying “Congratulations”… :) I didn’t bother to read the whole mail. Lol. Satisfaction, My moment of success, I just went ahead and hugged my brother who by the way was waiting for his results ( yeah! He’s Cleared L1 too.!!)  that night I when I was listening to Right said Fred- Stand up song, I felt I had succeeded, yesss!! But only just and I promised myself not to repeat the mistakes I had done for my L1 preparation again.

What where the mistakes? Not studying daily and leaving a lot for later is a receipe for disaster.! I was burnt out while I gave my CFA exam, unfortunately I had my MBA semester exams coming fortnight. No respite, again Slog! (Lol. Those days I wondered what’s keeping me alive).

Another big mistake was not doing the EOC questions from the CFAI books.. Gosh! The variety of questions covered in those books are awesome.. (Told myself I am not going to commit same mistakes again!).

I have registered for Level 2 exam this June 2012, Geared up, fired up ( yeah.! Scared too, What if I flunk?) I was reading articles on the net, found this useful “Being required to do the impossible produces despair, and despair can’t motivate anyone. But if a student knows a task, however difficult, Really! Is not impossible, then he might find in himself the energy and determination to tackle it after all.” All The Best Folks.!